I am sure we've all heard the story, a few might have even watched the movie. Many people want to be the Brad Pitt the manager who guides his beloved team to success, well me? I am the Jonah Hill type or as he is actually known, Paul DePodesta the man who introduced the use of SABRmetrics and revolutionised modern sport's use of data.
As SI added xG to the game in FM21 my eyes lit up. I already planned on doing a moneyball save for content this year and even ran a few tests in last year with varied success. The prospect of further data analysis in this beautiful game made me salivate.
Now, those of you who may stumble across this without any real experience in Football Manager may think this is incredibly nerdy, and it is. But then again, those who play FM21 are known to don suits for cup finals of dots on a screen so i can be excused for going a step further.
Consider this my introductory post, the save is not close to being started yet, it is still a good few weeks or a month or so away (sometime after full release). This is just to tell you the plans.
What is Moneyball
The first thing to let you know about is what it is. In case you're unfamiliar with the term moneyball.
In 2002 the Oakland Athletics of the MLB, with a limited budget (3rd smallest in the MLB) and having one of their best teams gutted for parts by the larger franchises, capture hearts of fans of the MLB so much so that a book was written; Moneyball: the art of winning an unfair game
(a must read for any sports fan). Their clever use of statistics over scouting 'gut' for lack of a better word led them to set a record 20 match winning streak in the MLB.
Now, it is harder to translate this over to football because the statistics that matter in baseball; onbase % for example - however, it has been used in football, and Billy Beane the former GM of Oakland Athletics has had profound impacts of some of England's biggest clubs, including my team, Liverpool.
It is well known that John Henry, FSG's CEO, tried to sign Beane to become GM of the Boston Red Sox, many also know Liverpool use the moneyball technique to sign undervalued players such as Andrew Robertson & James Milner are great examples. The hiring of Jurgen Klopp was decided upon based on their planned approach - a fantastic article on that here.
So, how does this translate to Football Manager?
Well, ill go more in-depth in the next installment of the blog, but for now here is the basic premise of the save.
The Plan
We sim forward either 6 months or a year, to garner statistics & data while also allowing a bit more flow to the game.
We look at teams who are not close to the top, likely not a team with the potential either to add to our challenge.
The team we manage will be a team with a decidedly small budget - under 500,000 a week for now that is subject to change.
The focus will be more on the stats - NOT ATTRIBUTES - i have 3-4 styles of play i would like to use throughout the save and each style has Key Performance indicators (KPIs) which i will use to decide whether i scout them further
The key is looking for undervalued players and making the best transfers with the least risk possible - So some more rules i have to follow
No mass loaning to gain promotion
Wages structure - more to come on this next time!
Absolutely £0 net spend until secure in top division
Free transfers, Transfer listed and aging players are key
Don't be afraid to sell star players ALWAYS HAVE BACKUP OPTIONS
The overall goal is to climb the ladder of divisional football and eventually win the Continental Trophy while having a minimal net spend and wage budget.
Next time i will go in depth on my scouting methods & what my approach to signings is.
Until then hit up my twitter to find out what else i am up to day to day.
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